Markets have reacted further with selling pressure this past week. It has been the worst week for markets since
Markets will give us
position.
World markets have also broken prior lows here. This is another indication that global economies will have
Economy Indicator | Released Date | Period | Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Actual |
Empire State Mfg Survey | 12/17/2018 | Dec-18 | 23.30 | 21.00 | 10.90 |
Recap of last week:
US Tariffs: There is a silver lining to FED’s rate hike, there is more likelihood that Trump will be inclined to have a China Deal. But this will more likely amount to
Economic Reports:
Housing Market Index | 12/17/2018 | Dec-18 | 60.00 | 61.00 | 56.00 | |
Housing Starts | 12/18/2018 | Nov-18 | 1228M | 1217M | 1221M | 1256M |
Existing Home sells | 12/19/2018 | Nov-18 | 5.220M | 5.19M | 5.32M | |
FOMC Meeting Announcement | 12/19/2018 | 2.00 – 2.25% | 2.38% | 2.25- 2.50% | ||
Jobless Claims | 12/20/2018 | Wk 1215 | 206K | 220K | 214K | |
Philly FED Business Outlook | 12/20/2018 | Dec-18 | 12.9 | 16.5 | 9.4 | |
Leading Indicators | 12/20/2018 | Nov-18 | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.0 | 0.2% |
Durable Goods Orders (new orders) M/M change | 12/21/2018 | Nov-18 | -4.4% | -4.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
Real GDP Q/Q change | 12/21/2018 | Q3-2018 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.40% | |
Consumer Sentiment | 12/21/2018 | Dec-18 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 98.3 | |
Personal Income M/M change | 12/21/2018 | Nov-18 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
Consumer Spending M/M change | 12/21/2018 | Nov-18 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Empire State Mfg Survey & Philly Fed both declined more than consensus indicating forthcoming weakness in
This week’s major events:
Monday | None |
Tuesday | Holiday |
Wednesday | Case Shiller Housing Price Index |
Thursday | Jobless Claims; New Home Sales; Consumer Confidence |
Friday | International Trade; Chicago PMI; Pending Home Sales |
Sector performance in last 3 month ending December 20, 2018:
Chart 1. Three Months performance of Sectors. Courtesy Vistalytics.COM This one is a clear picture of
Strongest groups are Utilities, Auto Parts & Healthcare (Medical-Outpatient)
Weakest groups are Basic Materials, Energy & Steel
Watch List: Our strong RS/Growth screen turned up no potential candidates to put on “
Summary: US & global markets have broken February lows and in ‘Bear’ territory. Sentiments are getting too bearish and we could see some sort of bottom close by. In falling knife scenario and in Trump era, close by may not be so close. Wait for clear signal of demand coming in before venturing into market.